Market Creation

Predictum markets are permissionless, meaning anyone can create one without approval or restrictions. Each market follows a simple, clear structure designed for fast, fair, and transparent resolution.

Question

The question defines the purpose of the market by asking what the result of an event will be. It must be written in a way that leaves no room for misinterpretation so traders know exactly what they are predicting.

Example: “Will Bitcoin close above $200,000 on December 31, 2025?”

A well-defined question is key to ensuring the market can be resolved accurately.

Outcomes

Predictum currently supports two outcomes per market — usually framed as Yes or No, or other binary options like Team A vs Team B. These outcomes must be mutually exclusive and together cover every possible result of the event.

Outcome prices are always between 0 and 1 unit of the market’s settlement token. The total of both outcome prices will always equal 1.

When a trader buys shares in an outcome, they pay the current market price. If their outcome is correct at resolution, each share will be worth 1 unit of the settlement token. The losing side’s shares become worth 0.

Example: In a market predicting whether Bitcoin will close above $200,000:

• Yes priced at 0.65

• No priced at 0.35

If Bitcoin ends above $200,000, Yes becomes worth 1 and No drops to 0.

If the real-world result cannot be matched to either outcome, the market is marked as Invalid and traders receive a refund based on the closing price of their shares.

Closing Date

Each market has a fixed closing date set when it is created. Trading stops automatically at this point to prevent price manipulation after the outcome is known.

For example, if the event occurs on June 15, the market might close on June 14.

Description

The description must explain exactly how the outcome will be decided and list the conditions that would make the market Invalid. It should also mention the trusted sources the AI will reference to confirm the result.

Example: “The outcome will be based on the official daily closing price of Bitcoin from CoinMarketCap. The market will be marked Invalid if the price data is unavailable or the event is canceled.”

AI-Powered Resolution

When the market closes, Predictum's AI automatically gathers and verifies information from multiple trusted sources to determine the correct outcome. This removes the need for human disputes, speeds up resolution, and makes manipulation highly unlikely.