Market Lifecycle

Prediction markets on Predictum move through three main stages from creation to resolution.

1. Open

When a market is created, it becomes immediately available for trading. At this stage:

• Users can buy and sell shares for any listed outcome.

• Liquidity providers can add or remove funds from the market’s pool.

• The market details, including the question, outcomes, description, and closing date, are locked and cannot be changed by the creator.

This ensures a fair and consistent market environment from the moment trading begins.

2. Closed – Awaiting Resolution

Every market has a fixed closing date set during its creation. Once that date arrives:

• Trading stops. No more shares can be bought or sold.

• The market moves into the resolution phase.

Instead of relying on token-holder disputes, Predictum uses AI-powered resolution. Our models gather data from multiple verified and trusted sources to determine the correct outcome. This process is designed to be fast, unbiased, and resistant to manipulation.

If the AI determines that the real-world result does not match any listed outcome, the market will be marked as Invalid. For example, if the market asks, “Who will win the 2025 Bitcoin Hackathon: Alice or Bob?” and someone else wins, the market is resolved as Invalid because the actual result is outside the stated possibilities.

3. Resolved

Once the AI confirms the outcome:

• Traders holding shares of the winning outcome can claim their payouts. Each winning share is worth 1 unit of the market’s settlement token.

• Shares of losing outcomes are worth 0.

• In Invalid markets, users receive a refund based on the closing price of the shares they held, which may differ from the price they originally paid.

By combining transparent rules with automated, verifiable resolution, Predictum ensures that every market ends with a clear and fair outcome.